The advance of the Islamic State in Syria and al-Sham (ISIS), currently
known as the Islamic State, has focused the international spotlight over
Syria and Iraq, as ISIS has taken control over huge swathes of the two
countries. Although Lebanon has managed to stay off the international
radar, instability and sectarianism leave the country equally vulnerable
to this growing threat in the region.
The lack of national unity has been disastrous for Lebanon. The country
has yet to overcome the damaging consequences of its bloody civil war
(1975-1990) during which regional actors capitalized on Lebanon’s
sectarian divides for their own political interests. For example, the
Syrian army entered Lebanon under the initial pretext of aiding the
Christian Maronites, and Iran took advantage of the disenfranchisement
of Shiites and the Israeli occupation to create the Shiite militia
Hezbollah. ISIS is very likely to exploit the Lebanese state’s failure
to resolve the deep sectarian divides just like it did in Iraq and
Syria.
Sunni grievances have been growing in Lebanese mainly due to Hezbollah’s
involvement in the Syrian civil war and the government’s
double-standard policies. For example, some Sunnis have voiced their
objections over the “arbitrary arrests” of Sunnis in Lebanon’s northern
city of Tripoli. MP Muhammad Kabbara, who is affiliated with the Future
Movement, went as far as to say that “the continuous security oppression
of the Sunni sect will lead to unexpected reactions.”
Lebanon also has two massive refugee populations, the Syrians and
Palestinians, both predominantly Sunni. The Palestinians have suffered
from abuse and disenfranchisement under the Lebanese political system,
and as a result they have become increasingly susceptible to Islamist
doctrine. The clashes in 2007 between the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF)
and the Al-Qaeda-affiliate Fatah al-Islam in the Palestinian refugee
camp of Nahr al-Bared gives an indication of the Islamist movements’
ability to take hold in the camps. Moreover, the Palestinians are
exhibiting a greater hostility
towards Hezbollah that is fighting alongside the Syrian regime. My own
conversations with some young Palestinians, who are routinely harassed
by Hezbollah, revealed a growing sense of hatred towards the Shiite
party and, more generally, resentment towards Lebanese Shiites. It would
be naïve to think that ISIS has not taken note of these attitudes, and
it will surely exploit them to its advantage. This may already be
underway.
Furthermore, there are more than one million Syrian refugees currently
living in Lebanon. The Lebanese government has neglected – or is
incapable of providing – their basic needs. They, too, provide a strong
recruitment base for ISIS, and some reports have indicated that the
radical group chose in early August 2014 to attack Arsal, a
Sunni-populated town along the Lebanese-Syrian border, because it
shelters many refugees. Though Hezbollah has pledged support to the LAF,
helping push back militants affiliated with ISIS and Al-Nusra Front in
the border town, this might aggravate sectarian tension that will play
into the hands of Sunni militants. The commander of the LAF, General
Jean Kahwaji, said that had the army lost Arsal, Shiite – Sunni tension
would have flared and ISIS would have continued to the coast and
declared its state.
The alarming clashes in Arsal will surely not be ISIS’s last attempt to
enter Lebanon. If its next move is successful, ISIS will likely reach a
military stalemate with Hezbollah along the already-existing
confessional borders – as the case with Iraq and Syria – and, in the
process, it will take over certain Sunni enclaves. Consequently, Lebanon
will fracture along sectarian lines, with each sect falling back into
its traditional areas to resist the onslaught. This would likely be the
unfortunate end of Lebanon as a state.
It is unlikely that Lebanon’s Sunnis and their leaders will submit to
ISIS out of true ideological conviction, but practical needs might
overshadow ideology. Shortages in supplies and ammunition have pushed
many Syrian rebels to switch allegiances, and others have said that
their desperation on the battlefield might force them to join ISIS.
Driven by despair and sectarian violence, we might soon see a similar
trend among some of Lebanon’s Sunnis. If Lebanon continues to
disenfranchise Sunnis, ISIS will repeat Hezbollah’s approach to the
Lebanese Shiites. It will take advantage of the absence of the Lebanese
state and provide armed protection and a wide array of social services
to some Sunnis in exchange for their obedience.
Lebanon is in grave danger of becoming the next victim of ISIS and the clashes in Arsal were just a taste of things to come.
David Daoud holds a Juris Doctorate in International Law, and aided
by his native fluency in Arabic, has worked in Lebanon and Egypt.
Source: http://fikraforum.org/?p=5292
Radical Islam Monitor in Southeast Europe
